I may be a bit brief this week. I've been sick a couple of days, so I'm posting my picks a day late. The lines this week look a little more problematic than last week's. All the good bets look to be on the road teams, which always makes me worry in the NFL. I've found a few games worth spending money on, though. I can always blame it on the sickness if I have an off week.

1. CHICAGO (+5 1/2) at Pittsburg: I wish I would have laid off a couple of days to let this one climb to 6 1/2. I can see Pittsburg beating Chicago. But with Chicago's defense playing lights out, I have a hard time seeing Pittsburg as a sure shot to beat the Bears by a touchdown or more. Heck, I'm not so sure I wouldn't pick the Bears to win this straight up. The line on this game is more a case of reputation than facts on the field, I think. This may be the case of two teams headed in opposite directions and the betting public doesn't know about it yet. The Bears offense sucks. The Steelers are in a must win situation. But I still can't get past the fact that the Steelers offense should struggle against the Bears defense.

2. CINCINATI/CLEVELAND OVER 43: The Bengals are scoring like crazy these days. Their defense is pretty darned close to pathetic. The Browns seem able to post a couple of big plays every week. So I think this is a pretty safe over 43.

3. KANSAS CITY (+4) at Dallas: This is a must win for both teams. Dallas has the better defense, while Kansas City has the better offense. In the past month, the Chiefs' passing offense has started to hit on all cylinders. The Cowboys should have Anthony Henry and Aaron Glenn on the field this weekend, but each of them are still nursing injuries. The Cowboys have only one 100+ yard rusher this year, and that was Marion Barber against the lowly Cardinals defense. They have no rushing attack, which is putting way too much pressure on Bledsoe and the recievers. All that being said, I would say this is the classic pick 'em contest, because the Cowboys do have the better defense and are playing at home. But I've found a local place that's installed the Cowboys as 4 point favorites, so I'm taking the Chiefs and the points in this one.

4. CAROLINA (-5 1/2) at home over Tampa Bay: Tampa's offense seems to have hit the skids in recent weeks. I've never trusted Chris Simms since his UT days. I still don't trust him. He showed a little something against the Redskins and Falcons, but then the Saints shut him down, of all teams. Meanwhile, the Panthers are starting to pull away from their NFC South competition. This is the week the Panthers all but win the division. Their defense should slow down the Bucs, while Steve Smith and the gang will have one more big play on their side of the ball. I expect to see the Panthers win by 7-10 points.

5. SAN DIEGO (- 13 1/2) at home over Miami: The Dolphins have won two weeks in a row, with a couple of big offensive performances. Miami impressed enough people that this game has been bet down from 14 to 13 1/2. I'm guessing that is more a function of the Raiders and Bills defenses than anything else. The Chargers need to keep on rolling if their late push for the playoffs is to succeed. I'm betting Tomlinson and crew whack the Dolphins pretty bad out in San Diego.

6. INDIANAPOLIS (-8) at Jacksonville: There are all kinds of stats that show Jacksonville plays the Colts tougher than anyone. The Jags have a good pass defense, which is perfect to slow down Peyton Manning. But I think the Colts are more assured and self-confident than when these two teams played in September. One thing left unspoken about Indianapolis this year is how untouched by injuries they've been, where in past seasons their team had to fight through nagging injuries to Edgerrin, Harrison and Wayne. The same can't be said about Jacksonville, who are playing their backup QB (not to mention the perennial injuries to Fred Taylor). David Garrard is not the kind of quarterback to play from behind. So I expect to see the Colts get up at some point--be it the first or third quarter--and then Garrard struggle in mounting a comeback. I see the Colts winning this one by 10 points or more.

7. NEW ENGLAND/BUFFALO Over 36: Buffalo is finished. Their defense is a complete shambles, after giving up a 21 point lead to the Dolphins (the Dolphins?) last week. If Gus Frerotte can torch the Bills, then I figure Tom Brady will find a few holes in the defense, too. Of course, New England's defense is giving up yards and points this year, as well. But Eric Moulds is suspended, for what that's worth. That should help the Patriots in doubling Lee Evans, who should come back to Earth after his 3-TD 1st quarter last week. This is just one of those games the Patriots find a way to win, on the road or at home. Let me add that this looks like a good OVER 36 bet, though I'm not going to double-down on a game taking place in Buffalo in December.

Well, that's it for this week. I wish I had jumped on that Giants/Eagles game earlier this week. It started at 3 1/2 around here and has been bet to 9. Nine points is enough to give me cold feet, but that 3 1/2 looks like easy money in the wake of the Westbrook injury. I probably should still bet it, but I won't. Take care, everybody.

I think you are right on the money Idiot