NFL PICKS

The NFL schedule this week has several toss-up division race games: Dallas/New York, Panthers/Falcons and Pittsburg/Cincinati. In each game, the home team is getting its usual 3, making these games virtual pick ‘ems on a neutral field.
Of the three, I would take the Cowboys as an underdog first. Unfortunately, word of snow in New York has me running from this game. You would think this might throw it the Giants' way, but it could be a double-edged sword. Manning may still be relatively inexperienced in such weather, coming from the deep south, while Bledsoe's career in New England and Buffalo would indicate to me at least he might adjust better to the surroundings.
All in all, I may try to avoid the Giants, Panthers and Steelers games, because each is so crucial to the particular division races, that they will take on the emotion of a playoff game. One bad break could throw all the calculations off, so I don’t have a strong impression one way or the other on these. If forced to make a pick, I would probably take each of the three home teams.
I’ll look elsewhere for good plays this week.

1. TAMPA BAY (-3 1/2) at New Orleans: Well, if you can call this game @ New Orleans. If Baton Rouge were any kind of a homefield advantage for the Saints, I might lay off this game. Several books are not giving the Saints the usual 3-point home field handicap. This is basically a neutral site, so I’ll take the Bucs to stomp all over the Saints.
It’s pretty simple. The Bucs have a better defense. They have a better running game and probably a better all-around offense. The Bucs are a better team, anywhere and everywhere against New Orleans. Since the Bucs view this as a must win and the Saints are playing out the string, even the intangables favor Tampa Bay in this one.
Sure, the Saints show up every once in a while to play, but it’s a pretty good wager betting against this unfortunate team. While anything can happen any given Sunday, this is the no-brainer of the weekend in the NFL.

2. KANSAS CITY (+1) at home over Denver: The Chiefs are a completely different team at home. On the road, pick against the Chiefs. At home, take them. As a home underdog, the Chiefs are almost always a good bet.
The Broncos are on a winning streak, but they are due for a loss. They should have lost to Dallas last week. Being in the stadium, the Cowboys looked to be the better team most of the day. I see the Broncos closer to being a 12-4 team than a 14-2 team, which means they should have a loss or two remaining on the schedule. This should be one of those losses.

3. MINNESOTA (-3) at Detroit: This one makes me a little nervous. The Vikings have been really hot over the last month and I wonder if they aren’t due to cool off. Are the Vikings really good enough to go on a 5 game winning streak?
Furthermore, the Lions have made big changes around the place this week. Mooch is gone and Garcia is once again the starter. With Dick Jauron installed as the interim head coach, the Lions may come out with renewed energy against their division rival.
On the other hand, Garcia is mouthing off about the front office. He also hasn’t been an effective quarterback since he was lining up with Terrell Owens as his target. Kevin Jones looks out of the game, while several key players on defense are nursing injuries. In short, the Lions are a mess.
I expect to see the Lions play this tough from the start and give the Vikings a tussle most of the day. But I expect Brad Johnson and company to win this in the second half, going away by 7-10 points.

4. HOUSTON (+8 1/2) at Baltimore: Should Baltimore be an eight-and-a-half point favorite over any team in the NFL? Even the lowly Texans? I think not.
The Texans are once again healthy on offense (Andre Johnson, Domanick Davis), while the Ravens are a week or two away from getting some of their defensive stars fully back. Jamal Lewis may finally be getting in game shape, but I wouldn’t bet on him posting another 100-yard performance; last week’s was the first of the year. And finally, Kyle Boller stinks as an NFL quarterback, despite his production in trash time against the Bengals last week. The Ravens offense is hard pressed to get out of the teens most weeks, though I’ll concede they have a good chance of it this week against the pitiful Texans D. Meanwhile, the Texans have put up production against healthier and better defenses than the Ravens this year, so they should be able to keep this within striking distance most of the day.

I may add another pick or two in the morning. I want to check the weather on a few of these games. I’ll probably even post a pick of the Monday night game this week, though that may not be until later tomorrow night or the next day, once again for the purposes of weather.

you won 4 and lost 0, what is your monday nighter?

PGHKid

I'm proud to say I'm 9-and-0 in the pros the last two weeks.

Just wish I could boast about my college picking, but that's season's practically over now and none too soon. My college picks were soooo hot early, but I've hit the skids the last couple of weeks. VTech blows.

Anyway, about tonight. As I've had to say several times in the last month, I wouldn't make a prediction if this weren't a monday nighter. With a snow storm hitting Phillie this evening and tonight, things get a little too unstable to predict. Here's my analysis.

The Eagles offense was pathetic last week, but they were missing several linemen. They are a little healthier this week, but still are without anyone beyond Westbrook on offense. Luckily, the Eagles are playing the Seahawks ragged defense. I would expect to see Andy Reed and staff come into the game with a game plan of (no big surprise) short passing with a healthy does of McMahon on roll-outs, which in the snow could keep the Seahawks defense a little off-balance. Expect to see the Eagles move the ball better than last week. Turnovers will be a huge factor in how they convert their drives, as always.

On the other side of the ball, it becomes a test of Shaun Alexander against the Eagles run defense. On the road, the Eagles have given up big games (Falcons, Broncos). At home, they are a different team, as evidenced by the game they shut down Tomlinson. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Eagles slow Alexander down, at least to start the game.

All that being said, Alexander usually comes up big in prime time games. He has had 5 TD performances on Sunday night, as well as a 4 TD game this year. And the Seahawks defense is used to practicing against a version of the West Coast, at least the Mike Holmgren version. The Seahawks D might adjust more quickly to Reid's offense, Reid being a Holmgren protege. That's tempered by the fact that the Seahawks seem unable to adjust to most peoples' offenses.

I am tempted to take the Eagles and the points here. This is where it is customary to take the home underdog on Monday Night. The weather throws a huge x-factor into all considerations. In the end, I just wonder if the Eagles aren't a tired team. In their playoff runs these last five seasons, the Eagles have played an extra 10 or so games. That is a little over an extra half season than many other NFL teams in that span. What with the contraversies and added wear-and-tear, it looks like the Eagles are starting to show the signs of mental and physical fatigue. So I am making this pick based more on the Eagles' current deficiencies than any awe of Seattle's accomplishments.

I still think the Seahawks are over-rated. But they seem to be living a charmed life this season. With the Panthers and Bears winning yesterday, the Seahawks need to keep winning. They Eagles don't have much to play for, unless they are looking at this as a last stand. Still, I don't have enough faith in Mike McMahon and Reggie Brown to say the Eagles will keep this game within four points. As far as the snow goes, the latest reports have the worst precipitation hitting the area around midnight. That means the storm might not be as bad as first feared, though it will still be a significant factor in the outcome. So, if you are going to bet this game, I would take the Seahawks giving the points.

I would avoid the over/under. I would normally take the over on this game. I don't have much confidence in the Seattle D completely shutting the Eagles down, while the Seahawks will score theirs. Still, the weather makes it unsafe to bet the over, so I would avoid it altogether.