NCAA

1. MIAMI HURRICANES (-17.5) at Duke

THe Hurricanes have lost players to suspension. They've endured a week of controversy after the huge brawl with their crosstown opponent, Florida International.

All of this means the line on this game has moved 5 or 6 points since the line opened.

This is still Duke we're talking about. The Blue Devils are one of the great doormats in major college football this year. Look at the lines they've been getting week in and week out. They're typically getting four touchdowns or more.

So the Blue Devils get a mixture of Miami's first and second string. This is still a big mismatch. The Hurricanes will take out a lot of frustration on their opponent this week. Hopefully they do it all within the context of the game.

2. MICHIGAN (-12.5) over Iowa

Michigan is heading towards the showdown with Ohio State. Everyone wants to see these teams meet as unbeatens, which hasn't happened in quite some time for this rivalry.

This is the point where one would expect the Wolverines to slip up in years past. Just when everything seems to be going their way, they lose focus and a dream season comes to an end.

Some people are calling for an upset here. That's not going to happen in Ann Arbor. Iowa couldn't handle Indiana, for heaven's sake.

Both teams are banged up. Michigan will be without Manningham, who has caught 9 touchdowns on the season. But Iowa is missing even more key players. Iowa will have trouble running the ball against the stout Michigan defense, which will put Drew Tate is a difficult situation all day long.

I'm sure Iowa was embarrassed last week. The Hawkeyes will put up a big effort, due to wounded pride. They might hang tough for a while, but Michigan is a far superior team and it takes one step closer to the big fight for #1.

3. IOWA STATE (+2) over Texas Tech

Tech is being made a road favorite off of their reputation of the last couple of years. Mike Leach's teams have rolled up huge point totals in recent campaigns, but that just isn't happening this year.

Tech has struggled all year, just about anywhere they've played. It isn't that Iowa State is a whole lot better. But give me the home underdog in this one.

NOTE: I nearly picked Arizona as a two point home underdog over Oregon State, but I'm less comfortable picking these kind of Pac-10 games than Big 12 games, with which I'm more familiar. But I like these small home underdogs, and I think Mike Stoopes is improving the Wildcats. So instead, I'll stay in the Big 12 for my next pick.

4. TEXAS (-4.5) at Nebraska

We've got two 6-1 teams here.

Nebraska has one of the better offenses in the nation, with a solid combination of running and passing.

Both defenses have proven themselves strong against the run this year. I imagine this game will be fairly close to the end. But Bill Callahan's clubs just haven't done well against higher rated teams in his tenure.

It seems like every time I've bet a game this year with a much-improved team trying to step up in quality of opponent, that up-and-coming team gets slapped back down with the rest of the also-rans. I think Nebraska is headed in the right direction. But until the Cornhuskers prove they have what it takes against the likes of Texas, I'll give the few points and bet on the Top Five ranked team.

solid write-ups. GL Village!!!

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Winning picks

http://winingconnection.tripod.com

1. Carolina -3 . Cinci Is Done. Way Too Many On Ir. Remember This Phrase" Peppers Again From Palmers Blind Side"

2. Washington -9.5 . Indy Is Impressing No One, Barely Beat The Titans. Way To Many Pts For This Game. Gibbs Can Make A Game Ugly Quick.

3.denver +4 . Browns Suck. Enough Said.

4. Upset Special!!! Kc Wins Outright. Who Would Be Crazy Enough To Pick That ? Me . Just When Marty Makes You Believe He Drops You On Your Empty Wallet!!!! Kc's D Is Tough And At Arrowhead Getting 6 To 7 Take It.
Good Luck To All

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A good friend will bail you out of jail......A true friend will be sitting next to you saying damn we f'd up....

Agree on Denver and Carolina. Panthers on a 4 game winning streak and are starting to look like they might be a Super Bowl contendor after all.

I've learned not to pick against the Chiefs at home. They've seemed like two completely different teams the last few years, depending on where they played. I know what you mean about the Chargers; they've seemed to be on the verge of being a top contender the last two years, but then struggle to even make the playoffs playing Marty Ball. Look like they're ready to make a run this year, but the young q.b. has to hurt them somewhere along the way. And if Rivers doesn't, Marty certainly will.

1. CAROLINA (+3) at Cincinnati

I saw somewhere the other day that Carolina is something like 13-4 the last 17 times they were underdogs. I wish I had that stat in front of me, but that's pretty close. The point being, it's never a bad bet to take the Panthers as an underdog.

Something just doesn't seem right with Cincinnati this year. It seems like teams are taking away Chad Johnson, and the rest of the team isn't able to make up the difference. Sure, Houshmandzadeh and Henry can look as spectacular as Johnson at times, but the offense just isn't consistently as good when C.J. isn't a big part of the gameplan.

I saw where Chad's been added to the injury report with a sore shoulder, which is the first indication there might be a physical reason he isn't performing this year.

Meanwhile, Steve Smith looks like he's back to health, which means trouble for pretty much any defense playing Carolina in the near future.

NOTE: Though I want to see the Steve Smith/Terrance Newman showdown next week, seeing that the Cowboys matched Newman up on Smith last year, which was the game Smith was held to 17 yards and was ejected late in the 3rd quarter for losing his cool.

2. PHILADELPHIA (-5) at Tampa Bay

Phillie lost a hard fought match to the Saints last week on a Reggie Bush punt return. Tampa Bay shocked the Bengals with a late touchdown. This line seems to be closer than it should based on those two games last week. If you take the whole season into account, the Eagles should smoke the Bucs this week.

Keep in mind that the Eagles were coming off a huge win over Dallas, and therefore might have had a hangover from that game. Keep in mind the Eagles have a bye week coming soon, so they are unlikely to overlook this game.

If the Bucs defense slows down McNaab the way they did Carson Palmer last week, I might start to give them a little respect. Until they do it two times in a row, I'm going to assume last week was a fluke.

3. DENVER (-4.5) at Cleveland

The Denver offense hasn't performed well enough for me to take them when they are a much bigger favorite than this, but I think they are safe to cover a 4 and a half point spread.

Cleveland is coming off a bye, so you would think they should give their best effort. But the Broncos had a bye the week before, so it's not as if the fatigue factor should play much of a role.

In the end, the Broncos defense has been highly impressive, giving up less than six points a game to opponents this year. Combine that with a Browns O-line that's never recovered from the loss of Bentley, and this could get ugly for the Brownies.

4. GIANTS (+3.5) at Dallas

Don't get me wrong; I love my Cowboys. They just seem so up and down this year, and I have a bad feeling they are going to struggle against the Giants this monday night.

Maybe it's that drubbing they took in New York City late last year when the division was on the line. Maybe it's the idea that the Giants pass rush has come around the last two weeks, and Bledsoe seems as bad as ever when there's pressure on him.

Whatever, I think the Giants are surging right now and the Cowboys--despite the blowout of the lowly Texans--are a flawed football team.

Given the spread, the Giants only have to lose by a field goal for me to win. I love the Cowboys, but I think this one is going against them.