NFL PICKS

1. JACKSONVILLE at Arizona (+3): This line has been bet from 4 and 1/2 down to 3 over the course of this week. Jacksonville has a reputation for playing down to its competition, while Arizona is coming off of a big win on the road over the Rams last week. With the Jags visiting Arizona, people expect the Cardinals to give Leftwich and company a tough game. I think the oddsmakers had this one right to start with, though. Let’s look at the matchup of units.
The Cardinals have no running game to speak of. They do have a good pass offense. But stopping the pass is the specialty of the Jaguars defense. So expect to see the Cardinals offense struggle more than it normally does this week. Left to run the ball to make up the difference, I’m betting the Cardinals will struggle on offense.
On defense, the Cardinals are one of the worst run defenses. And with Bert Berry out for the year, their best pass rusher is missing. They gave a pretty good effort against the Rams offense last week, but that is a flash in the pan. Despite the big names on offense, the Rams stink this year. Bulger going out in the middle of the third played more into the Cardinals late surge than anything else. The game was 17-16 at the time in the Rams’ favor.
It’s a bad bet, wagering the Cardinals to put together two strong showings in a row. Meanwhile, the Jags have a schedule that should let them put to rest whispers about their killer instinct. Don’t let last week fool you; the Cardinals are a bad team. Pick Jacksonville to slam the Cardinals.

2. MINNESOTA (-4) at home over Cleveland: Cleveland is definately improving in its first year under Romeo Crennell. Coming off a shutout of the Dolphins last week, betters have bet this line down half of a point. Once again, Vegas probably had this right to begin with.
Like many bad teams getting better, the Browns are a much different team at home than on the road. They seem to be knocking off teams in Cleveland. When they are away from the friendly confines of the Dawgpound, the Browns lose their cool and lose games big. Travelling to play a resurgent Minnesota team this weekend, look for the Browns to lose by a touchdown or more.
The Vikings are finally playing to their potential. Many preseason prognosticators had the Vikes going to the Super Bowl. While that isn’t going to happen, Minnesota’s defense has begun to play with confidence in recent weeks, sparking a turnaround and a month-long winning streak. Brad Johnson seems to have settled the team down. It looks to me like Johnson’s insertion into the starting lineup coincided with a refocusing on the running attack and a redoubling of efforts on defense. This is the classic case of “everybody taking more on themselves” when the star goes out. Minnesota is riding a crest. I’ll bet on them to ride high one more week at home against the Browns.

3. TENNESSEE (-7 1/2) at home over San Francisco: The Forty-Niners are a more hapless version of the Browns. At home, the Niners play teams tough. On the road, San Francisco looks just awful. The Niners played lights out last week to come up a couple of points short against the Seahawks.
Tennessee is hosting their second consecutive home game this week. They lost a hardfought match against the Jags last week. With their offensive stars healthy coming off the bye week a week ago, the Titans field a more talented squad than the Niners. Expect to see the Titans put up some points against the league’s worst pass defense. The Niners should wilt on the road once again.

4. SAN DIEGO on the road over Washington (+3): This is a must win for both teams. The Redskins have been dropping games of late, slowing dropping out of the NFC East race. The Chargers put themselves behind the eight ball early in the season, but have been roaring back in recent weeks. Many people have them as a darkhorse in the AFC, if the Chargers can just make the playoffs.
One thing to watch out for, Antonio Gates may be slowed this week. Tomlinson is simply the best player going in the NFL these days, and Brees was able to get the ball to McCardell and the rest of the recieving corps when Gates was (out and) struggling earlier in the year. I’m sure Gates will suit up and the Chargers will have the offense to outscore the Redskins.
With so much on the line, I’m picking the better team to come out with the win this week. The Redskins are fading. The Chargers are surging. This is the time of the year the contenders are seperated from the pretenders. Pick the Chargers to further expose Washington this week.

5. NEW YORK GIANTS (+4 1/2) at the Seahawks: Seattle struggled playing the Niners on the road last week, but will bring a different game this week in Seattle. The Seahawks need to keep winning if they are to secure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Holmgren’s bunch is a different team at home than on the road, but they have played a soft schedule to this point. The Giants, on the other hand, play in the tough NFC East, which is also playing the even tougher AFC West this year. The Giants’ 7-3 record is more impressive than the Seahawks’ 8-2 total. The Giants can secure a one-game lead over the Cowboys with a win this week. Also, a win in Seattle gives the Giants the tiebreaker in an eventual tie against the Seahawks.
The Seahawks are overrated. They play in an awful division with the Rams, Cardinals and Niners. That’s 6 wins right there. The Seahawks could have and should have lost to the Cowboys when they hosted them in October. Giving up 4 1/2 points to a solid Giants team is too much. I see this as a close game the Giants could win. Ultimately, I’m assuming the Seahawks should win, but in a closely-contested matchup. This is close enough to a pick ‘em that I’ll take the Giants and the points.

WOW, nice picks Village.. wish i had followed your advice on all of them..

first time posting.. here are my picks this week:
Played the jags -3.5, pats/KC under 51, Minn/Cle over 38.5, Saints (+120) on the money line (thank goodness that last field goal was short).... Won 3 out of 4

Any info on teh Pitt/Indy game? I was thinking of Pitt +8, and possibly Pitt (+300) on the money line, and under 47.5. We know pitt loves to run, run, run, and indy has had some trouble stopping the running game. Plus they got Parker, Bettis and Staley listed as probable (anyone know if they're playing for sure?). I think Pitt will control the clock enough to keep it under 47.5, even though Indy can score faster than any other team in the league. What are ya'lls thoughts on this game?

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Da Bears.

If I'm not mistaken, you're 100% on these right, Village Idiot?

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Randy

Nice job, Idiot. Keep up the good work! Looks like you may have done some damage to the boys in Vegas this week.

5-and-0, that's what I'm talking about!

Big Steve, I hate that I didn't get back to you earlier on your question. Here's hoping you laid off on the bet.

This was the first time I hadn't picked a monday night game all year. But I had been burned picking against Indie one too many times, so I laid off making a prediction.

Every week the Colts play a good team (Pats, Bengals, Steelers), I lean towards that team getting the points. If I was picking, I probably would have done like yourself and taken the Steelers and the points. Last night cinched it for me, though. At this point, I'm beginning to think the Colts are just THAT good. I don't know if it's safe to pick against them any longer, because they look like they can beat anyone by as many points as they wish. It's pretty scary stuff.

I agree with you totally Village. NEVER picking against the colts again...
The only wager I placed pre-game was teh under 48 (went up .5 pts on monday). Got greedy, and I did an In-Running game bet for Pitt +14.5. Really thought they'd be able to cover this, but the Colts are just that friggin good. Luckily i wagered teh same amount on each bet and only lost the juice. Still a great Thanksgiving weekend though.. all owed to the Falcons and Broncos.

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Da Bears.

Yep. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose one of these next five regular season games, especially when they clinch home field. Unfortunately, the Colts will probably whack a team the other four weeks. Going by that logic, picking against the Colts is a 20% success ratio.

I was going to the Cowboys game on Thursday and wanted no rooting interest besides bleeding silver-and-blue. Winning a couple of bets on Thursday is a nice way to start the weekend. By the way, Billy Cundiff must die.