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I don't have time to write up me college picks right now. I'll post them in the morning.
NFL 1. PITTSBURGH (+3.5) at San Diego Pittsburgh hasn't looked like the Super Bowl champs this year. More specifically, Ben Roethlisberger hasn't looked like a Super Bowl champ this year. In his first two games back from surgery, he's looked out of shape and rusty. I'm betting a bye week will allow the Steelers and their quarterback to round into form. It's still fairly early in the year, but we're starting to get to the point of the schedule where bye weeks start to matter. The Chargers looked like Super Bowl contenders the first two weeks. But I wonder if that isn't a function of playing the Raiders and Titans. They looked dominant for three quarters against the Ravens last week. But Steve McNair led a fourth quarter comeback and the shine seemed to being coming off the Chargers. Giving the Steelers an extra week to prepare, and knowing the Chargers are coming off a physical battle last week, I like the champs getting the points this week. 2. DENVER (-4.5) over Baltimore I'm picking another team coming off a bye week in this one. Baltimore had a huge win last week to go 4-0. Four games is their longest winning streak since the Super Bowl year of 2000. Still, a few chinks seemed to appear in the armor. Their running game continues to flounder, which is putting too much pressure on McNair. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense has given up one touchdown in three games this year. It is one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL, mainly because of a surprise loss in week one and a bye in week four. The Broncos are playing at home on monday night, coming off a bye. They have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup and should be rested and healthy. With the ebb and flow of the NFL season, it's about time for the Ravens to slip up. The monday night football schedule has been lame to this point, so (on paper) this should be their first good game. I'm betting the Broncos take the win by a touchdown or more. 3. NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Redskins I'll pick a third team coming off its bye week. Like the Broncos, the Giants will be playing host on a week's rest. The Giants have been disappointing to this point, and the pressure is starting to build for them to perform. Their defense, which was supposed to be improved this year, has looked weak. But a lot of that may be the result of playing the Colts and Seahawks, assumed to be two of the best offenses in the league. Their third opponent, the Eagles, look rejuvenated under a healthy McNaab this year. I expect the Giants defense to show improvement this week. Their opponent put up huge numbers against a stout Jags defense last week. I'm wondering whether that wasn't more of a fluke than anything, since Brunell and the boys have been suspect for the better part of the last year. They occasionally put up a big total, then slip back into mediocrity. This is a tough division battle that both teams need. But playing at home with an extra week to prepare, I'll take the Giants giving the points. 4. KANSAS CITY (-3) over the Cardinals I'm not entirely convinced the Chiefs have turned it around, even coming off their 41-0 drubbing of the Niners last week. But they get to go up against a quarterback making his rookie debut this week. Leinart showed skills in preseason. But it's an entirely different story in the regular season, when coordinators disguise their defenses and bring the blitz package more often. Also consider that the Cardinals defense hasn't been able to stop the run this season. Frank Gore ripped them for big yards, and Jerious Norwood posted 100+ yards off the bench last week. I don't know if whipping the Niners and Cardinals makes the Chiefs a playoff contender. But I'm willing to bet the Chiefs will post their second big win in a row. 5. COLTS (-18.5) over Tennessee This one is easy. The Colts are playing at home against a bad Titans team. The Titans are giving Vince Young his second start. I thought Young looked surprisingly good last week, at least for a young q.b. on the way to a 45-14 loss. He made mistakes, but showed flashes. But the Colts have an NFL game tape to look at now, which is something the Cowboys coaching staff didn't have last week. The Colts also have a better pass rush than the Cowboys. So expect Young to really show his lack of polish this week. The Colts offense will post big numbers. The Titans won't be able to keep up. I hate giving nearly three touchdowns in the NFL, but this is the rare case where I think it's warranted. |
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Piping hot college picks!
I'm picking the lower rated team as a favorite in each of these games. I have #13 Tennessee over #10 Georgia, along with #16 California over #11 Oregon. Tennessee and California will vault ahead of their rivals this weekend, who are both due for a loss. I may pick the Michigan-Michigan State game later today, but it starts at 3:30 (I believe). If I make this pick, I'll post it before kickoff. 1. TENNESSEE (-2) at Georgia Georgia won this matchup in Knoxville 27-14 last year. But what a difference a year makes. The lost to the Bulldogs started a spiral that left the Vols 5-6 and out of the bowl picture last year. Their offense was simply putrid. The Bulldogs were an outside BCS contender until D.J. Shockley went down to injury. Now, Tennessee's offense is back to respectability this year. The Vols actually had a negative turnover ratio last year, which is a hallmark of bad football teams. You tend to think of the big schools, playing several games against outmatched opponents, would always have a positive turnover ratio. But last year was a complete disaster for Tennessee. That's not the case this year. Erik Ainge already has one more touchdown than the Vols offense had all last year. That's in a year they lost six games, and therefore were behind a great deal of the time. Meanwhile, Shockley is gone at Georgia, and the Bulldogs are struggling. They aren't the same team they were early last year. Even at home, I think Tennessee gets revenge this week. They must, if they want to compete for the SEC East title. That's may be a long shot, but Tennessee tradition demands nothing less. 2. CALIFORNIA (-5) at Oregon California was getting talked up in the preseason. If they could find a quarterback, they could challenge USC in the Pac 10 and make a run at a BCS bowl game. Then they got whacked by Tennessee in the opener. Since then, California has been one of the sideplots of NCAA football. Oregon has been on the front page, due to their controversial win over Oklahoma. In the meantime, California has begun to gel, showing the potential some preseason experts saw in them. Oregon has a good offense, but their defense is suspect. California is a little bit more of a complete football team right now. Their defense is a little bit better than Oregon's, while Nathan Longshore is beginning to round into form as a passer. Both offenses are talented in this game. It should be an exciting one to watch. But with California at home and boasting a better defense, I'll give the points and pull for a Cal win. |
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