NCAA

1. OHIO STATE (-16.5) over Penn State

This is a revenge game, pure and simple.

The Buckeyes' last loss was at Penn State. But the team which took O.S.U. down last year no longer exists.

The Nittany Lions are young and inexperienced, too young to give the #1 rated team a good game on the road.

O.S.U.'s defense is surprisingly strong this year, given the fact they lost 9 players off their top-rated defense of a year ago.

But their offense, led by Troy Smith, has retained continuity. I'm sure they put up 40+ on the Lions, which should be more than enough to cover this spread.

2. ARIZONA (+22) over U.S.C.

This is a bet on the Las Vegas oddsmakers.

The Trojans were installed 14 point favorites at the beginning of the week.

That line has been bet a huge 8 points, so that Arizona is now a 22-point home underdog.

When in doubt, go with Vegas over the betting public. They know something the public doesn't.

I think U.S.C. has been bet up this high based on a reputation built on the efforts of players now in the NFL. They're still good, but I'll take Arizona getting 3+ touchdowns at home.

NFL

1. JACKSONVILLE (+7) at Indianapolis

I hate betting against the Colts. It's usually a bad idea. But I have to this week.

Jacksonville has traditionally given the Colts trouble, even at home. They held the Colts scoreless in the first half at the Dome last year, and have played them close the last several seasons.

The Jags look to be on the top of their game, after two impressive wins over the Steelers and Cowboys.

The Colts run defense looks greatly weakened by the departure of Edgerrin James. It probably won't break out this week against the Jags.

That leaves the game in the capable hands of Peyton Manning. I imagine he will deal the Jags their first loss. But the record shows the Jaguars will keep this close and, given their play so far this year, might even pull the straight up win.

2. FALCONS (- 3.5) over New Orleans

If the Saints win this week, I'll start believing in them. But I keep expecting the Saints of old to appear.

There's a lot going for them. This is their home opener in what should be an emotional game. They are coming off of two road wins.

But I still wonder if they are ready for the prime time spotlight.

Meanwhile, the Falcons running game has been dominant. They have already rolled over two other division rivals, Carolina and Tampa Bay, racking up huge ground numbers against two playoff-caliber defenses from a year ago.

I expect to see them run it against the Saints, too. They'll get a lead and then test the Saints pass blocking with one of the better pash rushes in the NFL.

3. DETROIT (-6.5) over Green Bay

The Lions offense has struggled mightily the first two weeks. But they were playing the Bears and Seahawks, arguably the two best defenses in the NFC.

With the Packers defense coming to town, I expect to see the Lions start to come out of their offensive funk.

On the other side of the ball, the Lions have a solid enough defense. They aren't great, but they should be enough to give the young Packers offensive line fits.

I hate this for Brett Favre. I hate that his final season is going to be such a bummer. But I think the Packers are one of the three worst teams in the NFL, and so I expect an average team (in the Lions) to beat up on a bad team this week.

4. CAROLINA (-3) over Tampa Bay

Here's another battle of 0-2 teams. In this case, the opponents were playoff teams in '05.

Whoever loses this game will have dug a huge hole for itself, if they hope to get back to the playoffs.

I just trust the Panthers to right the ship more than I trust Chris Simms.

Let's look at last week. The Bucs got dominated for the second week in a row. Meanwhile, the Panthers went on the road, played well enough to win and eventually lost in overtime because of a stupid mistake.

I think it's time for them to get down to business, whatever the injury concerns on their team.

Whether Steve Smith plays or not, I expect the Panthers to grit this one out. As the pressure gets more intense on Simms to perform, I expect hi to make more mistakes.

I like all except your Indy and USC losses.
We will see.......good luck!

I agree on the Jacksonville pick. The Colts are just a tad less lethal than they used to be, and the Jags are coming off a huge win on Monday night. The Colts may still get the win, but it's hard to bet against a 12-4 team getting +7.

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"You gonna bark all day, little doggie, or are you gonna bite?" - Mr. Blonde from Reservoir Dogs

The buckeyes sure made you sweat one out yesterday, but you got it. I took Louisville +14 as my only sat. play. They have just been to dominant.

As for the pros, I like that Jag pick they look balanced and mean. If they get to Manning they will win outright.
I'm also sticking with my guns and betting against Tenn, Cleveland, and Oak until they prove otherwise.
So I'm taking the Fins -11
Ravens -6
Wash - 4
Philly -6
I like the Steelers this week but will not touch it, Cinci is beat up, with two gone on the o-line Palmer is in for a long afternoon.
Good luck to all.

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A good friend will bail you out of jail......A true friend will be sitting next to you saying damn we f'd up....

Boy, the NFL really kicked me around this weekend. Good thing I went 2-0 in the colleges, or this weekend would have been a complete disaster.

And to think I consider the NFL my strong suit.

Oh, well, I can live with 2-3-1 for one week. Puts me to 10-7-1 on the season.