Week 2 NCAA and NFL Picks

[The Village Idiot]

NCAA

I'm eyeing two other college games this week: Louisville/Miami and Texas Tech/TCU. I want to add at least one more college play, but I'm torn on each of these. I want to take the underdog in each case, but I don't know if I have the guts.

I just think Texas Tech should win, though their defense has me worried. Meanwhile, I wonder if the loss of Michael Bush doesn't finally start to show this week against the 'Canes. They certainly didn't miss Bush last week.

So I'm going to sleep on it, and may place the bet in the morning. So keep an eye here for updates.

1. Auburn (-2 and 1/2) over L.S.U.

#3 Auburn is giving only 2 and a half points at home against L.S.U. That means the oddsmakers have this as a virtual tossup on a neutral field, or even Louisiana State as a slight favorite.

That L.S.U. defense is stout. It hasn't given up a touchdown is three and a half games. But they haven't been playing this Auburn team in that stretch. I think Auburn has a real chance to make a run at the National Title game this year.

2. Texas at Rice (+ 28 and 1/2)

I bet against Rice last week. They lost to the Bruins by only 12. So with the Longhorns' big loss last week, this line has been bet down 2 and a half points.

Obviously, Texas isn't what it was last year. But U.C.L.A. has slipped significantly, too, right out of the Top 25. Rice was a good underdog last week, but I'm betting they get slammed this time around.

Texas is looking to take out their frustration on somebody. They are also looking for a little confidence on offense. Here's betting they get confident real quick this week against Rice.

If I lose on this one, I will never pick against Rice again...at least this year.

NFL

1. Washington (+6 and 1/2) over Dallas

Washington didn't look so hot last week against the Vikings. Dallas looked good for a quarter against the Jags, then fell apart. On the strength of that, the Cowboys were installed nearly a touchdown favorite. I just don't see it.

First of all, this is going to be an alley war. Neither team wants to go 0-2. So I expect an emotional battle.

The Redskins beat the Cowboys twice last year. One of those was the miracly win on Monday Night, which was flukey. But the other was a 21-point blowout in D.C.

I think the Redskins give Dallas a matchup problem. The Cowboys have big corners designed to stop big recievers. The Redskins have small, quick recievers who give the big corners trouble. You can say the same for Roy Williams. Add in a rookie free safety and I think the 'Skins are going to keep this within a touchdown. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion the Cowboys win this game.

NOTE: Within an hour of making this play, I noticed that Portis was declared out this week. I figured if Portis was able to play last week (and look fairly good at times), he was certainly good to go this week. Those Vegas guys always know something we don't know.

Anyway, for anyone still considering picking this game, keep that in mind.

2. New England (-6) at New York Jets

Let's face it; the Jets suck.

The Jets went to Tennessee last week and got the road win. All that means is the Titans are worse than we figured. The Titans may prove to be the worst team in the league this year, especially when they begin to start Vince Young.

So I'm not putting much stock in the Jets win last week.

This is one of those games the Patriots have rolled through in years past. I'm not too enthusiastic about their recieving corps, but the Dillon/Maroney 1-2 punch last week looked stout. I'm guessing that will set up enough play action opportunities that Brady will have good numbers this week.

The Jets are bad. There's no way they go 2-0. And I think this one should get out of hand.

3. Indianapolis over Houston (+13 and 1/2)

The Colts destroyed the Texans at home last year. I bet the Colts win this by at least two touchdowns this year.

I mean, the Texans have gotten two new running backs in two weeks. (Dayne and Gado) Their starter is a rookie sixth rounder. This just looks like a year for Kubiak to evaluate talent, which is legitimate enough. The Texans may be more competitive later in the year, but I just don't see them holding up to the Colts this week.

Also, this should be a good test whether the Colts runners are going to show up this year. Westbrook and Buckhalter tore the Houston Defense up last week.

4. Giants (+3 and 1/2) at Eagles

I think the Giants could win this one outright. They are the division champs, and I have a hard time seeing them go 0-and-2. The Eagles looked great against the Texans last week, but still...that was the Texans. Even if the Giants lose by a field goal, I win. So I'm happy taking this road underdog.

[The Village Idiot]

5-and-1 for the week! I'll take it. That puts me to 8-4 on the year. Maybe I'll stick to this plan and pick fewer college games. On to week three...

[mike griffin]

It says these were posted at 1:40 PM on Monday. Weren't they played on Saturday and Sunday?

[mike griffin]

My bad. They just reposted your date for the fifteenth.

Sorry