NFL Picks 11-19-05

[Village Idiot]

NFL PICKS

1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) at Chicago Bears: Chicago is having a good 2005 campaign. Playing in a weak division, the Bears look poised to make the playoffs. This week they host the Panthers, who are making a push to be the odds-on favorite in the NFC. The Bears have a tough defense, but with a rookie at quarterback, all they have to boast is Thomas Jones, who is coming back from an injury. Muhsin Muhammed will be up for a good game against his former team, but he still has Orton throwing to him. Orton should be under pressure most of the day.
The Panthers bring so much more to the table. I see the Panthers Defense shutting down the Bears most of the way. I see the Steve Smith and the Panthers offense having enough gusto to hang around 20 on the Bears. In the end, I see something like a 20-10 win for the Panthers here.
The one thing that worries me is Jake Delhomme’s propensity for turnovers. If the Bears win the turnover battle, they can take down the Panthers. All things being equal, I see the Panthers making a statement in this game and the Bears being exposed a little.

2. DETROIT LIONS (+8) at Dallas Cowboys: Okay, I know that Joey Harrington is starting for the Lions this weekend. And I know better than to put much stock into an easy win against the Cardinals. I even expect the Cowboys, realizing how fortunate they were to escape Phillie with a win, will be looking to take care of business this week. But this looks like a trap game to me. It looks that way to Parcells, too, who spread mouse traps around the locker room earlier this week to warn his team of the possibility.
The Lions have a good defense, especially against the run. I expect to see the Cowboys running game struggle once again this week.
On the other side of the ball, I see the Lions offense getting its skill position players healthy again. And if nothing else, last week should give the whole offense a boost of confidence. Even with Harrington at quarterback, I don’t see the Cowboys shutting this unit down completely.
Ultimately, I see this being a tough defensive contest. (Betting the under on this game isn’t a bad play, either, though I’m getting out while the getting’s good on Dallas over/unders after the Cowboys covered the over for me on Monday Night.) The Cowboys just don’t blow people out very often. Win or lose, their games tend to be close affairs. I think there is a chance the Lions surprise the Cowboys this week. Maybe Detroit doesn’t beat Dallas, but they should keep this one close to the end. Take the Lions and the 8 points.

3. DENVER BRONCOS (-13) at home over the New York Jets: The Jets may well be the worst team in the NFL right now. That’s saying a lot, when you have the Niners and the Texans in the mix. But the Jets are banged up on offense and can’t get teams off the field on defense.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have finally won me over. The defense that looked like patchwork at the beginning of the season seems to have become stout. Their two-headed running attack seems to have filled the void of the stud runners of yesteryear like Portis and Davis. Most surprisingly, Jake Plummer has stopped making bonehead mistakes. The Broncos are on a roll, only a week removed from a bye week and at home in Mile High. This looks like a blowout ready to happen.
I know, I know, I said I was laying off the Broncos last week. But I meant I was going to stop betting against them. Take the Broncos to win by a couple of touchdowns or more.

4. CINCINATI BENGALS (+6) at home over the Indianapolis Colts: It seems like every prognosticator this week has the Colts whacking the Bengals. Especially late in the week, I’ve seen the betting public start going for the unbeaten team to roll. The betting line has moved half of a point since the books opened. Most analysts seem to think the Bengals are not ready for prime time, citing their loss to the Steelers several weeks ago.
I see plenty of reasons to take the Bengals and the points. Most importantly, the Bengals are coming off of a bye week. Bye weeks are a huge advantage this late in the season. Not only have the Bengals been resting for half of a month, but their coaches have had all that time to prepare for this showdown.
You look at the injury report and the Bengals look relatively healthy. The Colts injury report, meanwhile, is a litany of defensive injuries. Most of those guys are going to play, but their effectiveness on defense could be limited.
As far as the Steelers loss, I think that is just a bad matchup for the Bengals. Cincinati is not good against the run, which plays into Pittsburg’s strength. Edgerrin James is running the ball pretty well this year, too, which doesn’t exactly bode well for the Bengals. But I look at the Steelers and Colts running games as different in character, the difference in power running as opposed to a running attack of draws, counters and sweeps.
Ultimately, the Bengals are healthier, better rested and getting 6 points at home. The Colts have to lose eventually and I think betting on the Bengals to win or keep it within 6 isn’t such a bad gamble.

5. NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) at home over the Philadelphia Eagles: Both of these teams are coming off tough losses last week. Big mistakes cost each team, from the Roy Williams interception of McNaab to the Vikings three touchdowns from their defensive and special teams units. Both teams need to right the ship; I see the Giants in a much better position to do so.
There is no doubt that the Eagles played well enough to win last week. There is something to the idea that Philadelpia is still on the same level as their NFC East rivals. But Phillie gave a huge effort last week and still came up short. Between Jeremiah Trotter’s remarks and the Terrell Owens arbitration hearing, contraversy continued to swirl around the team this week.
Most importantly, Donovan McNaab has already been ruled out of this week’s game. Mike McMahon, who could not supplant Joey Harrington in Detroit, is the new starter. With Owens and McNaab gone, the Eagles offense is looking pretty ragged. Reggie Brown can’t catch the ball and Greg Lewis can’t seem to get open. LJ Smith may or may not play this week, which leaves Brian Westbrook to carry the load. After last week’s big effort on the ground, I doubt Westbrook and the Eagles running game has two big rushing efforts in a row in them. It’s about that time every year that Westbrook starts to wear out and get injured, anyway. With even more of the offensive burden on him, expect to see Westbrook go out of a game soon.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants remain one of the better offenses in the NFC. Eli Manning had a bad effort last week, while Shockey is Questionable. But with the crowd behind them, I expect the Giants offense to put away the Eagles from any hopes of contention this year. The Eagles are spent and the Giants need a win to hold a share of first place. Give the 7 points and take the Giants.

6. Green Bay Packers (-4 1/2) at home over the Minnesota Vikings: This is another game I would prefer to stay away from. Still, I feel the need to make a pick on every Monday Night Football affair. The Packers are due to add a couple of wins somewhere along the way. Despite all of the injuries, they aren’t quite as bad as 2-7 would indicate. So I’m betting towards the mean this week.
Green Bay has the worse record of the two teams, but I’m not so sure that makes the Vikings better. The Packers have still scored more combined points than their combined opponents this year. And the Vikings won last week despite gaining only 125-some-odd yards on offense. With several key injuries on that side of the ball and awful team stats for the season, I don’t see the Vikings defense coming up with another effort like that on Monday night.
This is a little bit like both teams' second- and third-strings playing an exhibition. In that case, I’ll take the team with the star quarterback still on his feet. Expect to see Favre shine on Monday Night, especially with Smoot out of the game. Samkon Gado was effective against the Falcons last week. We’ll see how his is outside at night. Whatever the case, the Vikings are a dome team going on the road to Lambeau. Despite their playoff win in Green Bay last year, it’s still a good bet to see the team built for a dome and for turf to struggle on the grass in the cold.
I’m taking the Packers and giving the points in this one.

7. NEW ENGLAND and NEW ORLEANS OVER (45 1/2): In my over/under pick of the week, I’m picking the Saints and Patriots to go over the 45 1/2 point over/under. The Patriots like to sling the ball around anyway. With Dillon likely out, I expect to see them put the ball in the hands of Brady even more this week. With the Saints defense to throw at, expect to see Brady spread the ball around and put up some nice totals.
The Saints offense is coming off of a bye week. Horn is finally off the injury report. With his full compliment at wide reciever, Aaron Brooks should answer the Patriots scores with a couple of his own. I’m sure the Saints still take it on the chin in this one, but hopefully a week of rest will put some spring in their steps. If these teams hit 27-20, I win this bet. I don’t see that as too difficult for these two offenses to reach.