NCAA and NFL Picks: Week One

[The Village Idiot]

I'll call this Week One, since it's week one of the NFL season.

I'm going to go light this week. I'm still trying to get a feel for teams. I'll make three college and three pro picks. Maybe I'll come back tomorrow and make a couple of other NFL picks. There are a couple I'm eyeing.

NCAA

I'll stay away from #2 Texas hosting #1 Ohio State. There are too many new factors to make a decent prediction this year.

1. NOTRE DAME (-7 and 1/2) over Penn State

Notre Dame gave me trouble all last year. When I picked them, they won small or lost. When I picked against them, they won big. But this pick has as much to do with Penn State as anything.

JoPa's team lost a lot from his ballclub last year. They are young and talented, but I think they are a year away from competing in big games. Even if they come on strong later this year, I bet they aren't prepared to go into South Bend this early in the season and keep it close.

Notre Dame had a close call in Georgia last week. I bet they come back home for a strong showing this week. Brady Quinn has to make a little noise in the Heismann race, right?

This line has been bet down 3-and-a-half points since it opened. Vegas probably knew something, setting the original line where it was.

2. SMU (-5) at UNT

North Texas is my old alma mater; so I hate picking against them. But I think this is a pretty safe win for SMU.

Both teams got a spanking last week. But UNT got absolutely pounded, and they may not have recovered yet.

On the other hand, SMU thinks it is finally turning the corner and is looking to sneak into some minor bowl this year. If that's going to happen, then they must win at Fouts Field.

Speaking of Fouts Field, North Texas has no home field advantage this week. The Mustangs will take an hour bus ride to get to this game, and they will probably bring a good number of fans with them to balance out the usually apathetic UNT faithful.

So take SMU giving points here.

3. U.C.L.A. (-28) over Rice

Rice is traveling to L.A. This could be trouble for the Owls.

The Bruins can score points. There's never any denying that. And Rice simply won't be able to keep up. This is one of those games where U.C.L.A. skunks a bad team by 40 or 50, which boosts them in the rankings. The Bruins tend to win big and lose big. They'll get upset by a lesser-ranked team later in the year, but not this week.

NFL

I really wanted to pick the OVER on the Chief/Bengals game. That's two good offenses for a 46 point line. The Bengals can't stop the run, while I have litten confidence in the Chiefs stopping the Cincinnati offense.

The wild card here is Hermann Edwards. He loves to run, run, run the ball. All day long. He wants to shorten the game. I think Edwards will make the Chiefs an UNDER pick most weeks this year. This game goes OVER if the Bengals get up early and the Chiefs are forced to lengthen the game by passing it. But in Kansas City trying to stop Larry Johnson, I'm not absolutely certain the Bengals will get an early lead.

Maybe I'll come back and pick this one tomorrow.

1. CLEVELAND (-3) over New Orleans

First of all, Cleveland was a solid pick at home last year. Every time I picked them at home, either as a favorite or an underdog, they performed.

I think Cleveland is improving in Romeo Crennel's second year. They have completely transformed their linebacking corps by adding Willie McGinest, Kamerion Wimbley and D'Well Jackson in the offseason. Wimbley is one of the preseason favorites to be Defensive Rookie of the Year, while Jackson has looked like a second round steal in the preseason. I think the Browns defense has a chance to be real good this year.

If injuries haven't eroded their skills, the Browns offense has a chance to have playmakers. Braylon Edwards is back from injury early, and Kellen Winslow is ready to go. Droughns isn't spectacular, but he's at least brought steadiness to their running game.

I'm still not sold on Frye, but he showed flashes last year as a rookie in a bad situation and should improve in his second year with better weapons. The biggest question mark is their offensive line, with their well-documented problems at center. Their line will hurt them plenty of times this year. But that shouldn't matter this week.

I like the Saints. I sympathize with the Saints. I hope they are on the right track with Sean Payton.

But I saw them in preseason and they looked awful. Bush, McAllister and Horn give them weapons on offense. But their defense looks as bad as ever. I just don't see them going on the road early in the season and keeping games close, even against the Browns.

2. PHILADELPHIA (-4 and 1/2) at Texas

For a team that was a Super Bowl runner-up this time last year, I think the Eagles may sneak up on people this year.

Their schedule is awful. McNaab is healthy again. They have gotten older at some positions, but still have added young players along both lines and still have young corners. Their recieving corps is unproven, but I think Brown and Stallworth are more talented than the recievers the Eagles had years ago when they were going to championship games.

Westbrook will get hurt eventually, but he looks like he'll be good-to-go this week.

Meanwhile, the Texans are a mess. I think Kubiak was the right hire by the Houston franchise. But their defense is still a wreck. They have the unproven Wali Lundy starting in his NFL debut. Carr has Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds to throw to, and I bet he's going to be throwing it all day. That sounds like trouble.

These are the games the Eagles would dominate in years past. They would get a lead, then send blitz after blitz against a hapless quarterback. I think we get a glimpse of the 2003 Eagles this week.

3. SAN DIEGO (-2 and 1/2) over Oakland

Okay, the Chargers are rolling out a new quarterback. So a new leader on the road on Monday Night could be trouble. But we're talking about the Raiders here. We're talking about Tomlinson and Gates against the pathetic Raiders defense.

I personally think Rivers is ready. He's had two years to let it all sink in. And we're talking about a guy who went fourth in the draft. He's supposed to have all the tools, and he has weapons around to help ease the transition.

Perhaps more importantly, the Chargers defense continues to improve. They now have pass rush, which should play a large part if the Raiders get behind. The Raiders have some weapons, too, but San Diego should be able to force Aaron Brooks into a couple of mistakes.

[eugene]

I like the eagles - 4.5to 5.5 where ever it lands.
I think I'm going with the hot Brady arm and the Pats - 9.5
Good pick on the Irish they destroyed Penn St.
I am Afraid of them Brownies, they do me any time i touch them.

Good luck.

[The Village Idiot]

That's the last time I pick the Browns. If you can't trust them at home against the Saints, you can't trust them anywhere against anyone. Surely the Chargers will salvage the week for me. Or better yet, the Raiders will salvage it for me.

My college picks are a work in progress. I'll figure them out here soon. Can't believe I picked against UNT and they actually won.

UCLA and Rice was strange. After Notre Dame whacked the Lions, I just knew I would go 3-0 in colleges.

[mike griffin]

Upset of the week..........Overrated Carolina falls to Vick's crew.

[The Village Idiot]

Yeah, how 'bout those Falcons?

Big surprise, even without Steve Smith. Last time I looked, Smith has nothing to do with stopping the Falcons' run attack. That's a bad sign for many peoples' Super Bowl favorite.

So I went 3-and-3 in Week One. I can live with that for a start. At least now we have more information to work with.

I'm still shaking my head, because the two games I was most certain about were the ones I missed on.