College Picks 11-18-05

[Village Idiot]

The colleges have a truncated selection this week. Though there are many rivalry games this week, though rivalry games involving teams like Texas and UCLA do not occur until the week of Thanksgiving. Next week's USC/UCLA matchup and the Texas/Texas A&M games are a couple I'm looking forward to.

This week features two of the great matchups in all of college football: the Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama, as well as the Michigan/OSU game. These two matchups will be emotional, hard-fought contests with bowl implications. Both games are so closely-matched and the emotional aspect of the game so intense that I've decided to stay away from betting either of them this week.

Meanwhile, I am tired of laying bets on the USC Trojans. They trounce people at will, but it is hard to ever predict when they will be in the mood to trounce. I'm tempted to take Fresno State and the 24 points, because the Trojans may be looking forward to next week's matchup against UCLA. But I'm not going to lose a bet involving to USC's whims, so I'll stay away altogether.

With all that said, this week's games feature some of the lower-ranked matchups that I hope present better bet winning opportunities.

On a sidenote, the NFL is past its bye weeks. Therefore, the NFL docket has expanded to 16 games. I will post my NFL picks tomorrow, giving me one more day to see what the weather will be in the northern half of the country on Sunday. Now, on to the college schedule.

1. OKLAHOMA (+7 1/2) at Texas Tech: Tech opened as an 8 1/2 point favorite, but its loss to Oklahoma State last week caused a loss of confidence in the Red Raiders and this line has been bet down. I had been on the Tech bandwagon until last week, but the OSU game exposed some of Tech's weaknesses. The Techsters have the 9th rated run defense in the Big 12 this year and can be had on the ground. Enter Adrian Peterson and the OU Sooners.

I expect to see Bob Stoopes' team keep this contest close with a running attack that shortens the game and limits the number of possessions the Techsters get. Stoopes has beaten Tech five straight years, and speculation is the OU coaching staff knows former OU offensive coordinator Mike Leach's offense. Tech has not posted good offensive numbers against OU in recent years, though those Sooner teams were superior clubs to this one. Lookig closer at this year, Tech looks like it might be wearing down as the year moves forward. Hodges has almost as many interceptions as touchdowns over the last month. Meanwhile, OU is on a 4-game win streak and looks to be turning the corner on its rebuilding year. The Sooners disappointed me by letting A&M back in the game last week, but I think Bomar and Peterson will lead the Boomer Sooners to an outright win.

The trends look to be breaking OU's way, so I'll take Bob Stoopes and more than a touchdown worth of points.

2. PENN STATE (-7) at Michigan State: I sweated over this one. Michigan State has had a mediocre year to this point, but they usually have a big upset somewhere late each season. The Spartans have played Penn State tough in recent years. That being said, I see several reasons why the Nittany Lions should roll in this game.

One, Penn State is vastly superior to Joe Paterno's last few teams who played the Spartans. Two, Penn State has a stake in the Big 10 title and a major bowl bid on the line. Three, Penn State is coming off a bye week and should be rested in this late season contest. Penn State is simply better than Michigan State. The Lions have been whacking people of late and I see them beating Michigan State by a couple of scores.

3. COLORADO STATE (-14 1/2) at UNLV: I'm not picking for Colorado State here; I'm picking against UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels have been getting slaughtered by everybody this year. They may well be one of the worst teams in major college football this year. It is just a pretty good bet that UNLV is going to get routed once again.

4. NOTRE DAME (-34 1/2) at home over Syracuse: I don't usually like giving this many points. Too many things can happen. But Syracuse is having its most awful year in memory. Syracuse is having such a bad year, it even seems to be affecting the health of former Orangemen like Donovan McNaab. Fans and media are calling for the heads of the entire Syracuse offensive coaching staff.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 7-2 against the line this year. Last week was one of the two times the Irish failed to cover against Navy, but still won by 21. If Notre Dame posts another 42 points this week, that might be enough to cover this spread. As it is, I see the Irish posting something in the 50's.

5. MIAMI (-17 1/2) at home over Georgia Tech: I've been wanting to bet on Miami for several weeks now. Something in me keeps hesitating. That's probably because I bet on the Hurricanes' potential a couple of times early in the year and was burned. But the 'Canes are riding high after their upset of Virginia Tech a couple of weeks ago. Ranked at #3, the Hurricanes still hold out hopes of playing in the national title game, crossing their fingers that either USC or Texas trips up along the way. That probably isn't happening, but Miami has reasons to play hard. I see them winning going away at home this week over Georgia Tech.

6. TULSA (-14) at Tulane: You have to feel for the Tulane kids this year. Hurricane Katrina uprooted the Mean Green Wave, which hasn't had a proper home all year. Though Tulane has had some solid teams in years past, the 2005 Tulane squad never had much of a chance. 3-7 Tulane lost to previously winless Rice last week. It doesn't get much lower than that. Tulsa is playing for a bowl bid, while Tulane is simply playing out the string. Like all home games for Tulane this year, this isn't really a home game. Better luck next year, but I see Tulsa pounding Tulane this week.

7. BYU (-10 1/2) at Utah: Brigham Young plays host to their cross-state rivals this weekend. I got on the BYU train about the time it started to roll about a month ago. Because of its poor start, I consider BYU one of the most underrated teams in the nation. The Cougars are playing better than their 6-4 record at this point. The 5-5 Utes appear to be going in the other direction. I'm a little leery of picking against a 5-win team in their final game, because that team is playing for a bowl chance. But I simply think BYU at home is 11 points better than Utah at this point in the season.

8. VIRGINIA TECH (-7) at Virginia: I have read a lot of people picking Virginia to win this week straight up. Maybe those people are right. But Vick and company have had a week to rest after their trouncing by the Hurricanes. That means they either come out with a vengeance against their rival, or they have nothing to play for and give a lackluster performance. I'll take my chances on the more talented team when it has had a week to heal up and recharge its batteries. Virginia Tech probably wants to take it out on somebody; the Cavaliers are the next team on the schedule.