Weekly Picks

[Village Idiot]

WEEKLY PICKS

Village Idiot here. First of all, hello everybody.
Just to introduce myself, let me say that I’m an old buddy of Big Randy’s. I have been picking college and pro games this year and been having a pretty good run of success. Last week, I went 9-5.
My list of winners in the colleges last week consisted of Penn State, Texas Tech, Texas, B.Y.U. and Arizona. I had picked the resurgent Arizona club to beat the UCLA Bruins straight up, so it was a no-brainer to take the Arizona and 9 points. But I won’t lie to you; I didn’t see a 52-7 romp coming! Wow.
My college losers were U.S.C., Arkansas and F.S.U. I thought the Trojans would romp at home, given all the talk about margins of victory and how they affect the BCS rankings. And after an upset the week before, I expected a letdown game for the Gamecocks on the road at Arkansas. I guess I’m going to have to start showing Steve Spurrier some love, at least now that he’s back in the college ranks.
You may notice I made my money last week picking favorites to beat up on the also-rans. Some think betting the underdogs is where it is at. I think that is often the case in the pros and in the colleges early in the year when nothing is as certain. But later in the college football year, I think the kids on losing programs start to lose interest in football. That’s when I try to clean up by picking favorites. You might keep that in mind when you see me picking the big wallops in the colleges this week.
In the pros, I posted a 4-2 record. I picked the Giants and Panthers to cover their spreads, while I had the Vikings winning a pick ‘em contest at home against the Lions. Kansas City beat the Raiders by four, but didn’t cover the 4 and 1/2 point spread I was giving.
In my weekly over/under bet, I took the Seahawks and Cardinals to post a total over 44. I figured the Cards would have trouble keeping Seattle out of the 30’s, while the Seahawks defense is nothing to write home about, either. A 33-19 Seahawks win vindicated my thought process. Over/under bets are generally hard calls, but Randy wants me to give him at least one such bet per week, so I figure I can find at least one value bet among the totals every week.
And finally, there was the Monday night game. I went back and forth on this one, because the trends were pointing in two different directions. This is usually the type of bet I stay away from, because of the intense emotions involved in the affair. Watching the game, it certainly had a playoff aura about it. Since all Monday night games must be bet on, I went ahead and placed a bet. Citing the Colts easy schedule, the fact Indie is due for a loss and the age-old axiom of betting on a home dog on Monday night, I went with the two-time defending champs. Oops! As a famous sports better once said, there’s one every week you want back.
But if we can go 9-5 every week, we can all make a lot of money at this. I’m not going to complain too much. I have 11 college picks and 6 pro wagers this week. So without further ado...on to this week’s picks.

[Village Idiot]

COLLEGES

1. OHIO STATE at home over Northwestern (+18): After a relatively slow start for the Buckeyes, it looks like they have begun to figure it out. Their offense wasn’t clicking very well at the beginning of the season, which cost them a chance to knock off 2nd-ranked Texas. That one-point loss is looking better every week, while Ohio State’s kids are starting to gain confidence. Northwestern has a decent defense, but their offense is close to nonexistent. As it is, expect to see Ohio State score around 40 and easily cover the eighteen points.

2. OKLAHOMA at home over Texas A&M (+13): Okay, you’ve figured me out. This time of the year in colleges, I like to find ragged teams and bet on them to get pounded. It is all the better when that ragged team is playing a talented one which has begun to turn the corner. That’s what is looks like in this matchup. Oklahoma is coming off a bye week and getting healthy. Adrian Peterson is ready and raring to go, which should only add to a young Sooner offense that has begun to mature in this last 3-game winning streak.
On the flip side, the Aggies are looking worse each week. At a point in every season, there are certain college teams that start to look like they are giving up. It looks to me like Dennis Franchione has lost this bunch of kids.
Take Oklahoma to cover.

3. T.C.U. at home over U.N.L.V. (+29): Here is my earlier theory taken to its extreme. The Runnin’ Rebels may be one of the worst mid-level schools in all of college football. And say what you will about T.C.U.; this team knows how to put up points. If you are wanting to bet on a game off the beaten path, take the Horned Frogs in a romp.

4. L.S.U. at Alabama (+3): This game started as a pick ‘em. I was one of those who bet the Tigers into being a 3-point favorite. It’s a little odd to see the unbeaten #3 team in the nation as an underdog at home. I wouldn’t blame you if you laid money on the home dog in this game. But I’m with the majority on this one. Most college football fans think L.S.U. is simply a better team than the Crimson Tide. I have been pointing to this game for weeks as the one in which #3 Alabama falls from the ranks of the unbeaten. ‘Bama has a great defense, but it’s offense has been hobbled by injuries, if you’ll pardon the pun.
We saw what happened to Virginia Tech played a better football team. Unbeaten #3 ranked teams can lose at home. I’m saying it happens two weeks in a row.

5. NORTH CAROLINA STATE at Boston College (-4 1/2): Just to show you I can pick an underdog to win in the colleges, I’m going to take NC State getting 4 and 1/2 to win on the road. I believe the Wolfpack is the better team, so I’ll certainly take them getting points. Go ACC!

6. B.Y.U. at Wyoming (+4 1/2): I’ve become a believer in BYU. I picked this team up as a late-comer a few weeks ago. I think they are consistenly underrated by the oddsmakers. It took them awhile to catch on, but Brigham Young’s switch to a more high-powered offensive approach is really starting to pay dividends. Brigham Young wins on the road this week, and they win by 5 or more.

7. MISSISSIPI at home over Arkansas (+1): Arkansas did me wrong last week. More importantly, Arkansas opened my eyes to how far they have fallen in the SEC. Mississipi’s defense will lead them to a win by more than the point given. It should be close, but give me a strong defense at home to win a close ballgame.

8. TEXAS TECH at Oklahoma State (+23): The Cowboys are having one of their worst years in recent memory. I compare Tech to the Houston Cougars during the days of the run-and-shoot. They just cover spreads, though they always lose big when they are underdogs. Keep that in mind and you’ll usually do fine when betting Texas Tech. They’ve been real good to me this year. I’m staying on the Red Raiders’ train until it comes to a stop.

9. ARIZONA STATE at U.C.L.A. (-4): I think the Bruins suffer a hangover from last weeks’ massive loss to Arizona. The other team in L.A. was living on borrowed time all year. Last week had to be a big disappointment. And the Bruins might get right with a big win. But I’m betting they come out with a lack of confidence. Even if they win, I’m betting the Sun Devils keep this close. As you should with any close underdog, I think there is a pretty good chance Arizona State wins this one outright.

10. MICHIGAN at home over Indiana (+25): The Wolverines have looked rotten at times this season. Now that Michigan has righted the ship, they are looking to take it out on an old rival. Along comes the hapless Hoosiers, just in time to get a boot in the face. If this were basketball, this would be a fair fight. But not Saturday at Ann Arbor.

11. TEXAS at home over Kansas (+33): Without Virginia Tech breathing down their necks in the BCS rankings any more, I was tempted to say the Longhorns will take their foot off the gas this week. But Vince Young and team are playing at home for the last time this season, so expect a victory lap for the team and its fans. Kansas has an okay defense and I’m a little concerned about a letdown game, but Texas is just that good this year. Like Baylor last week, the Jayhawks’ offense just isn’t good enough to keep this game close. The stout yet still underrated Texas defense makes all of these UT point spread covers feasible.

[Village Idiot]

...And now on to my NFL wagers for the week.

NFL

1. OAKLAND at home over Denver (-3): I keep betting against Denver; I keep getting burned. Still, I like betting for home underdogs in the NFL. That is probably the biggest difference in my picks between the NFL and NCAA. I pick a lot of favorites in the colleges. There are just that many blowouts. In the NFL, I am a great deal more selective.
The Raiders have the running game and offense to keep this game close. One thing people may not have noticed is the improved ball control of the Raiders offense has helped their defense that had struggled the past couple of years. The Broncos run offense, after a few weeks of struggle, looks like it’s back to where it has been in years past. Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell make a heckuva one-two punch, allowing the team to take some of the pressure off Jake Plummer. With both teams running the ball a little better these days, the game should be shortened. Shortened games are usually close games.
At home in a rivalry matchup, I don’t think it’s out of the question to see the Raiders win this game outright. That’s what you look for in an underdog, so take the Raiders and the points.

2. DALLAS at Philadelphia (-3): This is one of those games I told myself I would pick whoever the underdog was. It’s going to be a highly emotional rivalry game which could go either way. I think the Cowboys are a more solid team right now, but the Eagles are a longtime division champ at home looking at this as not only a revenge game (after a 30-10 loss in Dallas earlier this year) but also their best chance to salvage the season. Betting on either team has something to be said for it. But when I saw the Eagles installed as 1 and 1/2 point favorites, I knew I was going with Dallas and the points.
Since that time, Phillie money has rolled in and the Eagles are 3 point favorites. I can’t help but wonder if Americans are smoking crack on this one. Actaully, I think betters may be putting too much stock in the therapeutic value of a Terrell Owens purge. Yes, the Eagles and their fans will feel better about themselves after dumping T.O., but they are still left with major question marks on both sides of the ball. Reggie Brown looked good last week, but rookies tend to be up and down. We can expect the loss of Owens to catch up to the Eagles at some point this year; it might well be this week.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are coming off a bye week, which allowed them to get Julius Jones and Anthony Henry more or less healthy. I imagine Parcells will have the ‘Boys primed for prime time. Getting 3 points, this is a value pick, simply a good odds bet to place.

3. KANSAS CITY at Buffalo (-2 1/2): Once again, I’m a little mystified by this point spread. Buffalo is at home in this one. Buffalo is coming off a bye week. Priest Holmes is out for the year on the other side of the ball. So I can see reasons why people are betting them. But I still can’t help but wonder if the Chiefs simply aren’t the better team in this game.
This is the same Bills team that gave up 4 rushing touchdowns to the Raiders a few weeks ago. And Larry Johnson showed last year that, running behind that beefy Kansas City o-line, he may be better than Priest Holmes. I see no way Kansas City gets blown out in this game. If that’s the case, at the very least, they have a chance to pull this one out for you in the fourth quarter. Just as likely in my opinion, the Chiefs win this game outright.

4. CAROLINA PANTHERS at home over the New York Jets (+9): I don’t like betting point spreads near 10 in the NFL, but this is one I simply can’t resist. The Panthers may be the hottest team in the NFC right now. The Jets are on their fourth string quarterback as the starter. I see this turning into a rout.
Keep in mind that the Jets did keep their loss to the Chargers close last week. They were able to scrape together enough offense to score in the twenties, even. But that was at home after the bye with the Chargers flying cross-country for the game. None of that is happening this week. Expect Brooks Bolanger to get clubbed by the Panthers Defense this week, while Steve Smith and company post a big total against a meager Jets D.

5. WASHINGTON at Tampa Bay (+1): Tampa Bay is in a freefall. I believe Cadillac Williams is still injured. Note that the Bucs running backs coach claimed a week or so ago that Cadillac’s foot injury usually takes about 8 or 9 weeks to heal. He injured the foot six weeks ago. That would explain Cadillac’s almost nonexistent production since his return to the starting lineup. In times past, Gruden would simply roll Michael Pittman out there. But Pittman is nursing a shoulder injury that limits his playing time, too.
Without a running game, the Bucs have had to lean on Chris Simms. Simms simply is not ready for prime time. He doesn’t seem to have good field vision, which leans to inopportune interceptions. I see another loss for the Bucs, who are perhaps in a holding pattern until Cadillac is fully healthy and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Tim Rattay takes over the reigns from Simms. Injuries have undermined Tampa Bay’s playoff run this year. Washington is simply healthier. I see Joe Gibbs’ squad winning this one.

6. DALLAS and PHILADELPHIA OVER (39 1/2): Just like last week, this is another highly-charged Monday Night Football matchup. It may play tight early, but I see one team getting up and then posting higher-than-usual offensive totals. Though both defenses are good, the Cowboys are most vulnerable through the air. That’s about all the Eagles do (is pass) these days, so expect McNaab to have his moments.
The Cowboys posted 30 on the Eagles the last time around. They did that throwing the ball. Expect Parcells to give the Eagles a steady diet of Julius Jones and Marion Barber early. He’ll want to see if the Eagles are the team that gave up over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns to the Broncos running game, or the team that held Ladanian Tomlinson to his lowest total in the last couple of years. If the former is true, the Cowboys should be able to post a total near 30 again. If it isn’t the case, then Parcells will let Bledsoe loose and the Cowboys’ veteran passing attack will have moments of its own. In the end, this should be a highly-entertaining nationally televized game with a healthy score.

Final Note: That's it for this week. I'd like to see everyone else's picks, too. One of my favorite things is to go over last week's games and talk about the week ahead. Good luck, everybody.

[Village Idiot]

Well, you have one of these every once in a while. When it was all said and done, I'm where I started out for the weekend. I went 5-5-1 in the colleges and 3-3 in the pros, for an 8-8-1 effort overall. I thought I would give quick thoughts on the weekend. As always, the losses stay with a man more than the wins, so I'll dwell on negatives here.

My two biggest disappointments of the weekend were the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

When I saw OU up 21-0 five minutes into the game, I thought taking them as 13 point favorites was a cinch. The Aggies and McNeil in particular showed me a lot in their comeback attempt. Though they came up short in a 36-30 loss, A&M was able to foul up that bet for me.

The Texas Tech score was completely mystifying. It came out of nowhere. The OSU Cowboys had been blown out by several Big 12 schools, including a 35 point loss to A&M earlier this year. So with the Red Raiders (who specialize in blowing out bad teams) coming to town, this had all the makings of an easy bet. Sure enough, the Red Raiders lose STRAIGHT UP to the Cowboys. Go figure.

The game I was disappointed I didn't choose was the South Carolina-Florida game. As an emotional game, I should have known Spurrier would have his kids ready for the Florida showdown of all games. I almost picked the Gamecocks. Unfortunately, after his NFL screwups, I told myself I would never depend on Spurrier again with money on the line. So I passed on a classic bet for the college game. I'm may have to reevaluate my whole Steve Spurrier stance, now that he's back in the college ranks where he belongs.

I've had a sea change so far as the Denver Broncos go. I have bet against them for a month, believing they would be exposed as NFL frauds no better than the last 2-3 Bronco teams. Their blowout of the Raiders in Oakland finally broke me of that thinking. I still don't quite trust a team led by Jake Plummer to cover bets, so I may just stay away from the Denver games for awhile, at least this weekend. I'll include one caveat, though; I'll be tempted to lay a bet on next week's matchup versus Dallas, because I like a little action on Thanksgiving.

The Kansas City Chiefs completely disappointed me this weekend. I thought they were a good underdog against the Bills, because I thought they were simply a better team. It looked that way through most of the first quarter Sunday. The Chiefs were up 3-0 and driving, when a Trent Green fumble went 60 yards the other way. After that, nothing went right for the Chiefs. Green, with three interceptions on the season coming into Sunday, threw three costly interceptions. Vermeil's went on to lose 14-3, with their worst offensive showing in a long long time.

Otherwise, have I mentioned that I love the Cowboys? Their late game heroics last night won me two bets, by covering as 3-pt. underdogs AND by covering the 39.5 over/under bet. How 'bout them Cowboys!!!

Looking forward to this weekend's bets. With bad weather expected around the country, let me remind all of you gamblers out there to check the weather reports before you start betting heavy favorites this weekend.

More to come later this week...