(The server was down for a while this morning, so I didn't get these picks up as early as I would have liked.)

I hate Week 17 of the NFL season. I’m never confident about what might happen. Some teams show up when they really shouldn’t. Other also-rans hardly show up at all. It is almost impossible to figure who will put it on the line one last time and who won’t. There is always a big surprise or two. Teams with nothing to lose are, of course, dangerous. They might have given up two months ago, but this is their last chance for eight months to play a real football game, so certain teams play lights out. In some cases, players on the verge of losing their NFL career look at this as their last chance to impress someone, even if it isn’t the current team they are with.

And then there is the one or two playoff teams which inevitably choke this last week of the season. It’s pressure like a playoff game for these teams, and some don’t handle that pressure very well.

So I hate Week 17.

I’m still trying to find the best bets I can, but this week’s games I’m not investing in as much as usual. It’s a real mixed bag, so everybody wish me luck.

I would look to pick the Cowboys, but that game is going off too late to know what the implications are, if any. If there’s something on the line, I might bet that game late. Perhaps I’ll take the Rams and the points, if the Cowboys have nothing to play for.

Also, I wanted to pick the Eagles getting points against the ‘Skins, assuming some of the same logic as went into the Atlanta pick (division rival at home; proud team who was in the Super Bowl last year). Unfortunately, the Eagles are so banged up, I don’t know if this can be considered the same team (in terms of group psychology) as it was last year. But Washington has been hot lately--too hot for that squad. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hickup this week. Alas, I’ll stay away from the game and laugh if the Eagles derail their division rivals.

1. ATLANTA (+3 1/2) over Carolina: Atlanta has had a good track record against the Panthers in recent years. Carolina needs this game more than the Falcons do, but the Dirty Birds aren’t your normal spoiler. Atlanta was in the championship last year, and is still smarting from getting knocked out of the playoffs last week. A lot of fading teams have injuries everywhere this time of year, but the Falcons are about as healthy as the Panthers at this point. And though the Falcons have been a huge disappointment, there isn’t much seperation between them and the two NFC South teams still in the playoff hunt. The Falcons took the Bucs late into overtime in Tampa last week. After two tough road losses, the Falcons come home to their comfort zone. Hosting a division rival with major playoff aspirations, Atlanta should have enough pride to make a tough game of it. With the 3 1/2 point cushion, I’m happy to take the Falcons.

2. PITTSBURG (-13 1/2) hosting Detroit: I usually hate taking a 10+ point favorite in the NFL. But the Steelers need a win to make the playoffs and the Lions are coming to town. I see Pittsburg winning this one with an exclamation point. They will run it all day on the hapless Lions, while the Pittsburg defense will dominate the Detroit offense. This is the Steelers playoff entry party.

3. SAN FRANCISCO (+1) hosting Houston: Welcome to the Reggie Bush Bowl. If Houston can secure a loss, they will win the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes outright. If the Texans win, they fall into a possible five-team tie for the worst record. Of course, the Texans aren’t going to tank this game for that reason. They’re going to lose for the same reason they are 2-13 this year; the Texans are the worst team in the league.

Let’s look at the facts. The Niners have gotten smoked on the road all year. But they have played tough at home, and Mike Nolan has his team playing a lot better as the season goes on. The Texans, on the other hand, have a lame duck coaching staff and holes everywhere on both offense and defense. The Niners at least have a coaching staff grading the players on their performance for next year. (Perhaps that’s why Dan Reeves was hired in Houston, to let the players know that somebody who might be here next year is watching.)

All in all, I really don’t know why the Texans are installed as 1 point favorites on the road in San Francisco. The Niners are bad, but what makes anyone think the Texans should be giving even one point on the road to anybody?

4. KANSAS CITY (- 7 1/2) hosting Cincinati: Cincinati is getting rested up for next week. The Chiefs have the fading hope that the Lions can somehow knock off the Steelers. At the very least, they have prepared all week on the contingency that they can make the playoffs with a win. The Bengals, on the other hand, aren’t in such a bad place with a loss. A loss and a New England win means the Bengals can avoid a likely first-round playoff matchup with the Steelers. Now, I’m not saying the Bengals throw the game. But I am saying that this has all been noted by the coaching staff when deciding how much to play the key starters, so the Bengals probably aren’t going to be primed to play this week. The Bengals tossed away a bye week with their loss last week; this is the closest thing to a bye week they get.

Another thing to consider is Larry Johnson. The Bengals have had a tough time stopping the run all year. That doesn’t get any better this week, as Larry Johnson continues to pad his late season stats. The Chiefs give their fans one more chance to wonder what might have been, as they beat the Bengals 2nd stringers by 10 or more points this week.

5. NEW ORLEANS (+ 13 1/2) at Tampa: For some odd reason, the Saints have a recent history of beating the Bucs. Most of that recent history came with the likes of Deuce McAllister and Aaron Brooks, so I’m not putting much stock in that history. What I am putting stock in is the fact that the Bucs offense has been sputtering for a month now. Chris Simms doesn’t seem able to consistently produce points for his team. Since the Bucs have been averaging less than 17 points per game over that stretch, it’s hard to see them beating most teams by 14+ points.

Of course, the Saints aren’t most teams. The Saints are the masters of “too little, too late”. Last year, they knocked the Panthers out of the playoffs on the last week of the season. Two years ago, they skunked a playoff-bound Dallas team the final game of the year. It seems like Haslett is able to get his team ready to play, when they see the light at the end of the tunnel and there is nothing left to play for. Maybe they’re just happy to see the end of every season. Whatever the case, take the Saints and the 13 1/2 points.