Here's a steaming hot bowl of NFL picks. It's Christmas, so I'm picking against a couple of teams that haven't played a meaningful game in two months, assuming they are more likely to get distracted by the holidays.

1. CAROLINA (-5) over Dallas: Man, I hate making this pick. I love the Cowboys. I pull for the Cowboys. But I'm afraid the 'Boys are finished in 2005.

After last week's debacle, I expect to see the Cowboys play with some pride. They'll give it a game effort and make a game of this most of the way. But there are just too many holes in the Dallas lineup. The running game has never developed the way I would have liked this year. Bledsoe is being asked to do too much, which is when he has gotten in trouble throughout his career. The offensive line is a complete shambles, having given up 7 sacks to the Redskins last week (who had only 20 sacks in the previous 13 games).

On the other side of the ball, the young Cowboys in the front seven have hit the wall. DeMarcus Ware and Chris Canty are playing like rookies, while the linebacker corps has been very average since Dat Nguyen went out.

But enough with my rant about Dallas. The Panthers need to keep winning. I see their defense shutting down the Cowboys offense pretty good, then getting a big play or two to propel them to a hard fought win by 7 or 10 points. As always, the x-factor with the Panthers is whether Jake Delhomme turns over the ball a couple of times.

2. NEW ENGLAND (-5 1/2) over New York Jets: I imagine this is one everyone is picking this week. While the Patriots have clinched their division, there may or may not be playoff positioning still at stake. Whatever the case, the Patriots second stringers have played most of the season anyway (due to injuries), so I expect to see New England easily cover this game. The Jets fans aren't likely to be too boisterous, despite the rivalry game, because they seem more interested in draft position than a meaningless win in December. Take the Patriots. They are the consummate professional team. Though neither team might be too interested in a Monday nighter the day after Christmas, the Patriots need to keep sharp and should continue the recent streak of blowouts on Monday night.

3. JACKSONVILLE (-6) at Houston: Houston notched their second win last week. Say goodbye to Reggie Bush. That aside, bad teams usually don't play well two weeks in a row. The Texans are probably satisfied with surviving the dubious distinction of a 1-15 season and are probably more interested in Christmas shopping than watching films of Jacksonville. This line is under a touchdown, so even if the Jags fool around for three quarters, they will still be able to cover with a late surge. I don't see that as being neccessary this week. After the scare by the Niners in Week 15, expect to see the Jags come out ready to take care of business.

4. NINERS (+9) at St. Louis: The Niners are a bad team. But Mike Nolan has them playing hard this year. The progress Nolan's defense has made since September has been impressive. Though they still look spotty at times, the Niners defense locked down on Jacksonville last week. And while it's seldom a good idea to pick a team with a rookie quarterback, when you look at what the Rams are trotting out there these days, it's hard seeing St. Louis beating anyone by 10 or more. Ryan Fitzpatrick is hurt and probably will not start, so Jamie Martin gets the nod. It might be noted that Martin looked so bad in his quarter-and-a-half (against the Cardinals) that the Rams benched him for the Ivy League rookie. The Rams have more talent on offense, but this is a meaningless game for both teams. I expect Mike Nolan to have his team up for the game more than Vitt, who has hardly impressed as the interim coach. The nine points make this a nice bet for the Niners. Let me note that, with two ragged quarterbacks on the field, the under bet on the over/under of 42 doesn't look so bad. I'm avoiding putting too much money on a Niners/Rams game, though.

5. TAMPA BAY (-3) over Atlanta: The Bucs gets shut out and lose by 28 last week, so I'm taking them? Well, the Falcons didn't look too hot last week, either. This is a big matchup for two teams whose playoff hopes got deflated in the last week or so. I'm going back to history on this one. The Bucs have a history of playing Vick and company really well, mostly because the quickness of the Bucs defense negates Vick's and Dunn's greatest strength. As has been stated earlier, Dunn is nursing an injury and may not be playing this week. And the Atlanta defense is not playing at the level it was last year. On the other hand, the Bucs seem to have the ability to bounce back from tough losses this year. Coming home, they should right the ship and notch a pivotal late-in-the-season win. Chris Simms, don't fail me now.

OTHER NOTES:

*I was leaning towards taking the Cardinals giving only a point at home against the Eagles. Then I wondered whether Moats (who seems to have some burst at running back) won't torch the Cardinals for a big day. The Cards give big rushing performances up to everyone, and I'm not really that confident in Josh McCown to lead his team to a victory against Andy Reid and company.

*I was tempted to take the Bears giving 7 to the Packers. The Packers are a mess. The debate over whether Aaron Rogers should play (at some point) in place of Favre is something entirely new in Green Bay, and it's hard to see how this team might handle the situation. Also, the Pack may be starting Noah Harrow at running back this week. The Packers are a mess. I'm not picking the Bears, though, because I don't trust them to have an offensive explosion and I could easily see them winning by a field goal in a defensive struggle. 7 points is one or two points too much for my tastes.

*I also want to believe in the Vikings getting 3 against the Ravens. Vegas installed Minnesota as a 1 point favorite. When the betting public disagrees with the oddsmakers on who the favorite should be, it's usually best to side with the professionals. And I ask myself, "How are the Ravens suddenly getting all this respect?" I guess a 45-point win really does wonders for perceptions about a team. Who knows? The Bears/Packers and Vikings/Ravens games are later in the weekend, so I may come back and lay some money on these games tomorrow.

You're 2-1-1 with the Monday night game left to go. Way to go, Idiot! Hope you'll be 3-1-1 when all is said and done!

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