1. CAROLINA (+3) at Cincinnati

I saw somewhere the other day that Carolina is something like 13-4 the last 17 times they were underdogs. I wish I had that stat in front of me, but that's pretty close. The point being, it's never a bad bet to take the Panthers as an underdog.

Something just doesn't seem right with Cincinnati this year. It seems like teams are taking away Chad Johnson, and the rest of the team isn't able to make up the difference. Sure, Houshmandzadeh and Henry can look as spectacular as Johnson at times, but the offense just isn't consistently as good when C.J. isn't a big part of the gameplan.

I saw where Chad's been added to the injury report with a sore shoulder, which is the first indication there might be a physical reason he isn't performing this year.

Meanwhile, Steve Smith looks like he's back to health, which means trouble for pretty much any defense playing Carolina in the near future.

NOTE: Though I want to see the Steve Smith/Terrance Newman showdown next week, seeing that the Cowboys matched Newman up on Smith last year, which was the game Smith was held to 17 yards and was ejected late in the 3rd quarter for losing his cool.

2. PHILADELPHIA (-5) at Tampa Bay

Phillie lost a hard fought match to the Saints last week on a Reggie Bush punt return. Tampa Bay shocked the Bengals with a late touchdown. This line seems to be closer than it should based on those two games last week. If you take the whole season into account, the Eagles should smoke the Bucs this week.

Keep in mind that the Eagles were coming off a huge win over Dallas, and therefore might have had a hangover from that game. Keep in mind the Eagles have a bye week coming soon, so they are unlikely to overlook this game.

If the Bucs defense slows down McNaab the way they did Carson Palmer last week, I might start to give them a little respect. Until they do it two times in a row, I'm going to assume last week was a fluke.

3. DENVER (-4.5) at Cleveland

The Denver offense hasn't performed well enough for me to take them when they are a much bigger favorite than this, but I think they are safe to cover a 4 and a half point spread.

Cleveland is coming off a bye, so you would think they should give their best effort. But the Broncos had a bye the week before, so it's not as if the fatigue factor should play much of a role.

In the end, the Broncos defense has been highly impressive, giving up less than six points a game to opponents this year. Combine that with a Browns O-line that's never recovered from the loss of Bentley, and this could get ugly for the Brownies.

4. GIANTS (+3.5) at Dallas

Don't get me wrong; I love my Cowboys. They just seem so up and down this year, and I have a bad feeling they are going to struggle against the Giants this monday night.

Maybe it's that drubbing they took in New York City late last year when the division was on the line. Maybe it's the idea that the Giants pass rush has come around the last two weeks, and Bledsoe seems as bad as ever when there's pressure on him.

Whatever, I think the Giants are surging right now and the Cowboys--despite the blowout of the lowly Texans--are a flawed football team.

Given the spread, the Giants only have to lose by a field goal for me to win. I love the Cowboys, but I think this one is going against them.